Category Archives: Apple

Will Apple Survive Price Competition?

Seven months is not a reasonable life cycle for any durable product. You wouldn’t buy a new TV, game console, Blu-ray player, refrigerator, or car every seven months. In fact, if a manufacturer discontinued and replaced your TV after seven months, you’d be pissed. But it’s like an addiction: carriers and OEMs need the high they get from the fleeting sales bump after the release of an incrementally new model, a bump that quickly flatlines. Hilarious price adjustments ensue; a $199.99 phone falls to $149.99, $99.99, $49.99, and eventually free over the course of a single year. theverge

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Apple right now is riding on huge sales volume, thus they can afford dishing out expensive to make Chip and component while still maintaining unprecedented margin. All in single product. But if one look at current 5 inch line up in China, I seriously doubt Apple can survive this game much longer once consumer jump onto 1080p thin 5″ model. Then they will experience what TI and RIM, sudden collapse of sale while still need to maintain large and complex supply chain.

This is not hypothetical, several of apple supplier went from top in the market to almost broke in no time once apple moves on. The original chip maker went bust and bought by Nvidia once Apple moved to Samsung for iPod CPU. Touch screen suppliers also experienced big jitter from apple changing technology.

So maintaining apple complex supply chain when there is sudden market change will be daunting.

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Android China Market Share

Android Completely Owns The Chinese Smartphone Market.

Android’s share of the Chinese smartphone market ended the third quarter at 90 percent.

According to Analysys International, Android’s share is up from 83 percent a quarter prior and 58 percent a year ago. businessinsider.

AAPL is Deflating

Unless you bought Apple stock before Valentine’s Day this year, you are now underwater. In what must be the best evidence of how quickly a liquidity-fueled over-owned bucket of over-optimistic extrapolation can see sentiment swing violently against it, AAPL just plunged back (on heavy volume) through its previous “generational low” from 11/16/12. At under $505.75 ($505.58), AAPL is at its lowest level since mid-February and is almost 30% off its highs on 9/21/12. Zero Hedge.

I think 2013 will be a difficult year for Apple if they keep the 4-4S-5 design tradition. Slight improvement of old design won’t cut it anymore. 1.) S3 size proved very popular. 2.) HTC has fit a 5″ screen into approximately S3 chasis. 3.) Everybody is rumored to have 5″ models. HTC, Sony, Samsung. 4.) 5″ 1080p screen is hard to make and in limited supply, so Apple can’t simply make 20 million a quarter 5″ screen if they decide to jump.

I would be surprised if Apple can hold on against Sony and LG if both goes high end.

iPad mini at the end of 2012

I wonder how long it will take Apple to realize they are in slippery slope toward commodity hardware, otherwise known as Android battle zone.

Apple originally expected to sell 6 million iPad minis over the holidays, but has doubled its orders with display panel makers to more than 12 million, NPD DisplaySearch analyst David Hsieh said to CNet. Demand for the iPad mini is so strong that’s selling better than the new fourth-generation iPad, he said. Appleinsider

Rumor of future iPad mini

The sources have yet to specify whether the device will use Apple’s Retina Display technology to enhanced resolution, but market observers said it is highly likely based on the development of past Apple products such as the iPhone and 9.7-inch iPad series.

Meanwhile, the sources also said that Apple will restructure the lighting of the next-generation 9.7-inch iPad from two LED light bars to one in order to decrease the device’s overall weight. imore.

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My take on iPad mini

1. 7″ is the most popular tablet size. 10″ is still too unwieldy for what it can do.
2. iPad mini will cannibalize the more expensive ipad.
3. Android will continue to be ahead in 7″ space. (for eg. the rumored ultralight Mini is nothing more than NEC Medias Tab UL N08-D carbon fiber chasis.)

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Update:

Predictions that Apple’s new iPad mini would cannibalize sales of the full-sized iPad seem to be coming true, according to one analyst.

Earlier this month Wu reduced the Mac outlook from 5.1 million to 5.0 million. It’s not a massive trim, but this is below the analyst consensus for Mac sales, which is in the region of 5.2-5.3 million.

Wu also lowered his revenue estimate for this quarter slightly, down to $54.4 billion from $54.6 billion, while at the same time raised gross margin from 38.5 percent to 38.7 percent, and keeping earnings per share unchanged at $13.70. Zdnet.